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COVID-19 Provinces Gear Up for Second Wave: Scotiabank Economics Q4 Provincial Outlook

Tuesday, October 27, 2020 4:22:00 PM

Most of Canada's provinces will experience record output contractions this year because of the COVID-19 pandemic, with many not expected to recoup their losses for several years, says Scotiabank Economics in its Q4 Provincial Outlook. The report was released this morning, on the heels of Scotiabank Economics' latest Forecast Tables, published Wednesday.

"The strength of the economic rebound since the peak lockdown period earlier this year has surprised on the upside," said Marc Desormeaux, Senior Economist at Scotiabank. "However, with the arrival of a second wave and new lockdown measures to curb the virus' spread, COVID-19 continues to represent the primary forecast risk."

Highlights of Scotiabank's Provincial Outlook include:

- COVID-19: We are in the midst of a second wave across much of Canada, and some regions have announced a new round of lockdown measures that could result in the kind of economic contractions experienced earlier this year.
- Population Growth: After supporting hefty employment gains before the pandemic, population growth has slowed significantly amid border closures and travel restrictions.
- Policy Support: The federal government and the provinces have introduced extraordinary measures to keep the economy afloat.
- Industries:Tourism and oil and gas have been disproportionately impacted, while agriculture, professional, scientific and technical services have performed relatively well.

SOURCE: Scotiabank